Omnibus II a done deal - Greens left feeling, errr, green?

So, having become bored with collapsing into their own tedium like a room-temperature flan, the Omnibus II negotiations reached an inevitably grim climax yesterday, with a deal bashed out to everyone's mutual distaste at the last possible minute - the basic details are here from the European Commission.  

Bearing in mind the volume of noise on the subject over the last 24 hours in particular, I figured I'd better pull a consolidation post together for my own benefit if nothing else!

The highlights are (apparently - no text released as yet);

1. Transitional measures extended for 16 years
2. Massive equivalence carve out (10 year "temporary" renewable facility)
3. Transposition date moved to end-March 2015
4. Matching adjustments and volatility adjustments more generous to the industry than recommended
5. The generosity of those adjustments countered by some qualitative measures around planning and disclosure.

Winners?

• Industry - Allianz's CFO rather boldly speaks on behalf of the entire European Insurance Industry, stating the deal is "...ambitious but acceptable". Prudential's CEO thinks it is "great progress" and "a good package", while Talanx "welcome the decision very much".
• Heavily indebted governments and companies - Burkhard Balz is happy to trumpet that "...we have also ensured that insurance companies will be able to continue to fulfil their role as long-term investors" through the lengthened transitionals and juicy adjustments. This will hopefully encourage insurers to splash some cash on long-term debt instruments and infrastructure projects where they may otherwise have stayed shorter-term.
• EIOPA - While they were happy to simply "welcome" the agreement, Sharon Bowles emphasises that "This marks the point at which Eiopa becomes fully fledged".
• Sharon Bowles - has surely enhanced her reputation by finally landing the most fraught European negotiation since the Abba reunion.
• Consultancies - will surely use the "tight timescale" routine to press gang the nation's NEDs and Execs into writing one more cheque.

Ambivalent?

• Insurance Europe didn't have much to say, other than acknowledging that the deal is not ideal, though provides a "workable base". They remain concerned about the "ambitious timetable".
• Groupe Consultatif also reinforce their continued support.
• The European Council apparently couldn't be bothered to send a big hitter to trumpet the big news, leaving it to one of the COREPER lads (well, an ambassador)!

Losers?

The Left - while it is no surprise that Sven and the Greens were left sulking (and doesn't the boy blog well!), the extent of his rancour, whether Party line or personal, doesn't augur well for when he and the ECON crew take it through Plenary, for example noting that the deal;

• "...[is a] flagrant violation of common market principles"
• "...[is a] grab bag of goodies"
• "...ignores the advice of the European Systemic Risk Board"
• "...resulted in the EP adopting a far more industry-friendly package in self-denial of the original mandate voted by ECON "

Perhaps most bitterly, he then promises to "...personally make sure that all companies making use of the agreed privileges will be named and shamed on a website including their brands and the billions of missing capital". 

You don't want to make the Greens angry now, do you...

Omnibus II moves again - accelerating the inevitable?

No sooner has the holiday season drawn to a close (and by that I mean everyone else's holiday season, as we don't 'do holidays' at Governance Matters...) than our good friend Omnibus II has jogged down the road another month - the procedure file has just been updated to show it will be hitting the November parliamentary Plenary (by my count, the 5th postponement since 2011).

Not entirely sure of the rather abrupt nature of this movement, bearing in mind the main players are probably still wearing their 'budgie smugglers' in the Med at the moment, but Gideon over on the Wire picked up on an issue which may have led to an early concession that October was simply too early, with an impact assessment on LTGs likely to roll off the back of the next trialogue.

We are also close enough to the finish line (don't laugh) to be getting into the national political cesspits, so a whiff of sabotage and national interest may also be coming to bear. Not only have the UK political opposition decided that Solvency II is controversial enough to start point scoring on, but last month Sharon Bowles (current Chair of ECON) gave an astonishingly frank interview to Risk.net (subscription only I'm afraid) where Das Küchenspüle was thrown at the German contingent. Quotes included;

• "...certain leading German MEPs have publicly said that Solvency II is never going to happen anyway" and
• "...I think there is a subtext here that the Germans - and I think this is well known - are trying to jettison the whole of Solvency II"

Well if Der Wahnsinn really is eine schmale brücke like the song says, its probably best not to cross it!

Omnibus II - ECON compromises dripping out

Still no sign of the Omnibus II compromise text out of ECON yet, but it would appear that some of the great and good have seen it - the InsureReinsure blog has summarised the major changes pre-ECON, while Milliman's William Coatesworth and chums have released a very useful note expanding on those topics.

Some of the tinkering around with dampeners is clearly moving away from market consistent balance sheets, but for me the most substantial shift is in the changes to the treatment of government bonds no longer being risk-free. While this is a shift towards market consistency (or at least the patently obvious!), no doubt it will raise a few heckles during the trialogues, where some of Europe's larger undertakings who don't carry bundles of mediterranean debt may feel aggrieved.