Thursday, 22 March 2012

Listed Insurers and capital adequacy - Generali

Onto the home straight with these now, as most of the UK Tier 1's and the larger mainland European have already presented their preliminaries for 2011, but Generali kindly pushed their disclosures out yesterday, which made for interesting reading on the capital adequacy/transition to Solvency II front. I had blogged last summer that these guys may be stretching it on the capital front on the basis of some numbers touted by the FT, so I have been looking forward to these!

In the main report, they draw out the following;
  • Solvency I coverage down to 117% at 2011 year end (from 132% at end 2010) - similar to Aviva, they throw together a pro-forma estimate for end-February to show that the year-end number was something of an "exceptional volatility" fluke, and suggest it is back around 130% again (p76).
In their analyst presentation, they are a lot more forthcoming on both regulatory and economic capital, and cover the following;
  • "Restoring capital adequacy" slide on p5 shows the need for the pro-forma capital recovery mentioned above.
  • Same slide shows economic capital was as low as 124% before the post-year end recovery (not disastrous bearing in mind they are calibrated to 1 year VaR at 99.95%, the same as Aviva and Zurich, and the same ballpark as Old Mutual).
  • Analysis of change in the Solvency 1 Margin (p33) shows how both the ratio and the amount have been decimated y-o-y - relatily small dividend element, so that should be safe I guess.
  • Economic Capital ratio change (p35) sees them also reference a more generous area of the PDF in order to give context to the level of coverage (only 124% covered at year end using AA rating as the calibration, but 159% covered using BBB rating). I'm guessing things look rosier at 99.5% for everyone else as well though fellas!
  • A slide covering the Solvency I change between 2010 year end and the improved pro-forma number at the end of February 2012. They gain €1.1bn from "Italian anti-crisis legislation", which I'm guessing is bond-related, and amplifies why the economic issues in that area of the Eurozone have to be catered for.
  • Some stress tests on the Solvency I ratio on p74 - useful for consideration
You might also get some use out of their EEV report if you are knee deep in sensitivity/scenario testing, and they go to the trouble of defining some of the terminologies we know and love in their methodology section (particularly nice effort on internal capital on p30)

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