Elderfield speech to Insurance Day summit in Bermuda - equivalence, model approval and "hub and spoke"

Very informative speech delivered this week by Mr Elderfield from the Central Bank of Ireland to the Insurance Day summit held in his previous stomping ground of Bermuda (certainly a more welcoming climate that last month's summit in not-so-sunny London!).

He mainly covers equivalence, internal model applications and, as one might expect from the Emerald Isle, the potential for Hub and Spoke operations and the potential capital benefits of this technique (which has a sniff of Group Support about it in all but name). I noted the following;

General

• Suggests Solvency II provides "...an incentive for investment in risk management, including the use of internal models" - I would substitute "incentive" for "compulsion"!
• Singles out "small firms" as those which will "certainly" struggle to assimilate and implement Solvency II in its current guise
• Notes that "...the current target is that member state governments will domestically implement [Solvency II] by 30th June 2013" - I have emphasised the "current target", as the very wording suggests that there is an implication it is not the "final target"!

Model applications

• "...it is important that approval process doesn't get bogged down in detail such as endless documentation reviews" - cue some raised handbags down at Canary Wharf I suspect!
• Highlights expert judgements around correlation and diversification (as he has done this time last year) as being much more significant around challenging the solvency requirements calculated by the models, in particular the "swing" these elements have on the final numbers. On that premise, he puts these "...at the forefront of the regulatory approval process", as well as expecting them to generate the most challenge in the boardroom.
• Elaborates on the extent of Board challenge by commenting that "...boards should be expected to challenge vigorously the amount of diversification benefit being claimed in internal models, even if they don't know the internal plumbing of copulas or correlation matrices". Very telling comment, and clearly one to heed, bearing in mind he is on EIOPA's management board.

Hub and Spoke

• Seeing "considerable interest" in using Ireland for the "hub" of the "hub and spoke" business model - one may have said this was for regulatory arbitrage purposes 5 years ago, but I'm guessing corporation tax, falling wages and underemployment may have kept it in play even after the recent beefing up of the CBoI
• Comments that "...it will be interesting to see whether [the hub and spoke] model will grow as Solvency II gets closer to implementation - implies that not only does he think the existing corporate structures are not settled yet, but that Ireland is actively open for business in this regard.

Equivalence

• Not sure if he was just being polite to his hosts, but he commented "...Bermuda is very well placed for [the equivalence] assessment process" - again worth heeding in the context of his position at EIOPA, as well as Bermuda coming off worst of the 3 countries which have been assessed in wave 1.
• Suggests there should be some sort of early adopter's premium for Bermuda which makes it worth being ahead of those countries who may come in in wave 2 (no mention of one of their competitors Guernsey in this context, who continue to bang the IAIS ICP drum while stating categorically that they will not seek equivalence).

Good intelligence all in all - PS must try and swing an invite to one of these things when they go tropical!

North American ERM/Solvency developments

The guys over the pond are having a busy week (actually two ponds for me, coming from the Isle of Man!), so worth summarising here.

RIMS Conference is underway over in Canada, and while I will need to wait before I go hoovering up material, the Risk Management Monitor dropped this curious piece out on top ERM mistakes - a little hard to substantiate some of the examples, but relevant nonetheless, in particular #5 on the difference between risk appetite and risk tolerance (lack of definition somewhat addressed in the IRM's release last week).

The Canadians, US and Bermudans got together for a group hug in the inaugural North American CRO Council. A very handy looking agenda to start with, particularly "industry leading" emerging risk research and 'harmonizing regulatory capital requirements across jurisdictions' - is this the promised "equivalence on a true outcomes-basis" as alluded to by Mr. Leonardi from the NAIC last month?

Last thing was the NACD Directorship roundtable on the new realities of risk management summarised here. Of particular interest was the attitudes noted, such as; which elements of risk oversight need to be addressed by the full board; need for specialist risk committees (not required outside of financial services); directors saying the are receiving more information on risk than ever before (quality a likely casualty I suspect); Risk managers said to be "less than optimally familiar" to the directors, and then some very generic comment on CRO's, risk and strategy alignment, risk appetite, material risk and risk culture.

My concern with this is that it sounds very much like the output from a lot of these round tables, where the 'risk rabbit' on good practices fills a gap where a more substantial discussion on defining terminology and responsibilities would be more useful.

Bermuda, Solvency II and equivalence (and some US comment)

No doubt you would have seen the release of EIOPA's equivalence work to date on Japan, Switzerland and Bermuda. Summary articles here and here if you haven't.

I will take a more substantial look at Bermuda's report shortly (in the context of Ireland's captive preparations, it could be a welcome fillip to the country if there is an exodus). They were certainly singled out as the least-well prepared, being criticised on a number of legal requirements as well as wholesale gaps in governance requirements and, more worryingly, capital requirements which, in EIOPA's words, "in practice can be very low for insurers with a high risk profile".

Interestingly one of the USA's finest insurance commissioners weighed in on equivalence this week. I suspect it was not intended as a sleight to refer to the prevailing European regime as "admittedly outmoded", though he appears to be to be staunchly conservative in his stance, commenting "...any equivalence process must respect the different legal and regulatory systems that exist around the globe".

A request perhaps to "respect his authoritaah" a la Mr Cartman? Certainly a view not shared by the queue of other countries wishing to attain equivalence, and a repetition of the IFRS/US GAAP protracted convergence the most likely result.

Insurance Day Summit 2011 - Bermuda shorts

Exceptional pun in the headline aside (?), there was a few tasty pieces from the Insurance Day summit in chilly Bermuda at the end of last week. Not sure if these are free or not, but I didn't struggle this morning;

Bermuda Monetary Authority
- their man Jeremy Cox spoke, emphasising how mutually beneficial the Bermuda/EU market is, and why it justifies increased headcount spend to ensure equivalence. He also spoke of their 3 year roadmap to equivalence, as well as 6 areas where they have expanded their output to achieve equivalence.

Mike McGavick speech
- CEO of XL Capital chipped in with a more industrial quality speech, albeit making the salient point that, should Solvency II inadvertently lead to mergers and larger insurers, it would not be a systematically great thing.

He comments (ironically, bearing in mind my last two posts about soft launching) that because the EU like their version of the rulebook, then "everyone else should follow suit".

He followed that with "...why is it that we just have to swallow your [the EU's] proposal" - again, this seems a little misguided, bearing in mind the IAIS have xeroxed most of the Solvency II text and obligations, so this is not far off being international best-in-class, as opposed to being EU-centric.

Certainly didn't stay on the fence, and should be applauded for that at least.

NAIC CEO speech

Pretty blunt speech from the head of the National Association of Insurance Commisioner in the US - that, while she likes soome parts of Solvency II ("ORSA and some of those Pillar II things"), the Pillar I stuff will not wash over there. In particular, quite scathing about regulatory capital being used to incentivise good risk management.

Equivalence, captives and Solvency II - different strokes...

A subject close to my heart as a Manxman, I keep an eye on equivalence-related material, and this has been a relatively busy week. Guernsey have had a nice soiree in London to emphatically support their captive industry by confirming there would be no Solvency II equivalence sought.

For a captive-heavy country this makes sense - Ireland (who like a bit of captive themselves) have been prominent in catering for some element of proportionality at national level, and at a Solvency II presentation in the Isle of Man (where we are also partial to captives) in November 2010, the locals were equally vociferous on the problems it could cause them, so were delighted to hear that equivalence was not on the agenda.

This contrasts to the Bermudans, who are seemingly happy enough to trod the path to equivalence as early as possible. However, there seems to be a desire for a specific carve-out to put some meat on the bones of the proportionality concept which, at this juncture, is most certainly not a given.

Four captive-loving islands, four different approaches - whoever's approach is ultimately victorious, I hope it is for the right reasons.