Elderfield at the European Insurance Forum - one for the road...

So the European Insurance Forum is in full swing over in Dublin, which from what I have seen to date in the tweetosphere (thanks DIMA and Mike!), sounds more like Alan Partridge's sales conference for Ireland plc.

That aside, Matthew Elderfield, the outgoing Head of Financial Regulation at the Central Bank of Ireland, gave a rousing speech touching on risk-based supervision and the 'prospects' for Solvency II. As a member of EIOPA's management board and head of the second largest internal model assessment body in the EU, his words are very much worth heeding.

Given that he has already addressed this forum a couple of years ago on such matters, as well as being relatively outspoken  recently on the quality of components parts of Irish risk management systems, one might expect a few home truths on his way out of the door to an equally precarious task as Head of Compliance at Lloyds Banking Group.

EIF 2013 - More to Ireland 'dan dis'?

The headline acts for me was his revelation that diversification in internal models remains a bugbear, to the extent that he supports the kind of 'floor' arrangement being given airtime at the PRA. Given he had already made his distaste at the extent of the diversification benefits being sought clear in a speech last year, it is not surprise to see it on his agenda, more that it implies that the expert judgements of those involved in the calculation process may be overridden (due to regulatory prudence?), regardless of how well they are documented or supported. 

In addition, his angle on bridging the LTG issue makes interesting reading for anyone who doesn't receive briefings on EIOPA's inner workings.

Noteworthy points (my emphasis if emboldened) therefore included;

On Solvency II

• Drawn out process has "naturally resulted in a combination of fatigue and exasperation", with the "...high costs of preparation compounding concerns"
• Regardless, "it is unacceptable that the common regulatory framework for insurance in Europe in the 21st century is not risk-based"
• "Urgently need" the framework to reflect asset risks, riskiness of different lines of business, encourage better governance and risk management, and provide better disclosure.
• "Solvency II does indeed have its imperfections", but "...the benefits of moving ahead with Solvency II outweigh the costs..."
• Notes his "long-standing concern" around over-optimism in the calibration of internal models
• "...complexity has clearly gone too far in some areas - and makes implementation very difficult for smaller companies"

On Omnibus II and EIOPA's LTGA

• Omnibus II delay "...is a course of considerable concern to regulators and industry alike", and the "...entire framework is essentially stuck on one issue" which "...will require a political compromise"
• Personally supports a more generous approach to matched premium adjustments on certain lines of business, provided they are (a) only applied to the back-book, (b) companies provide Pillar 3 disclosures both with and without those adjustments, and (c) supervisors can apply capital charges if they are not happy.
• "With European elections looming next year, it is important that this process concludes in the autumn at the latest"

EIOPA - filling gaps
since 2013

On EIOPA's Interim Guidelines

• As justification for supporting them, "Much of the Solvency II framework is already clear", and emphasises that "we will adopt a proportionate approach"
• EIOPA is "helping 'fill the gap' created by the hiatus in the political negotiation"
• "The EIOPA initiative should be strongly welcomed by regulators and industry alike"
• Hopes the system of governance and ORSA interim guidance provide "manageable and useful transitional steps towards full Solvency II adoption"
• For Pillar 3, expecting "best efforts" especially from High Impact insurers, with the use of statutory powers held in reserve "as a last resort.
• For IMAP, can neither sanction an "early conclusion" nor a "hard stop", so will ultimately elongate the administrative burden, hopefully leaving less to do towards the end.

On Diversification benefits

• "...in common with a number of other [unnamed] supervisors", CBoI is concerned to ensure "prudent recognition of diversification effects"
• "Fundamentally, what is needed is a broad agreement on the outer bounds of acceptable levels of diversification in the model approval process", citing one jurisdiction (UK?) looking at hard SCR floors based on proportion of MCR.
• "...the Central Bank's message to Irish firms is to take a conservative approach to the recognition of diversification..."
• Points to the failure to add formal constraints on diversification benefits in the Directive text
• "Supervisory quants are at risk of being outgunned by industry quants in the minutiae of a correlation debate"
• Also has a stab at "overly generous approval" in other member states in the context of regulatory arbitrage - is it that hard to say "no" just because the home regulator says "yes"?

Of less consequence for those outside of Ireland, he goes on to cover the CBoI's bespoke work around VA-specific risks (in light of prolonged low interest rate environment), the failure of Quinn Insurance, and the bedding in of their PRISM risk-based supervisory framework, the latter eliciting the comment that "we are still some way from fully embedding our new approach".

From this, one might reasonably think that, should Mr Elderfield's successor continue in the same vein, that the correlation matrices of Ireland's 30-something IMAP candidates are likely to get a severe working over in the next couple of years. Let's hope the industry gets their documentation in order!

Elderfield speech to Institute of Directors in Ireland - 'the Gene Genie'

With all the subtlety of an American industrialist in Paris, Mr. Elderfield delivered a speech to the Irish IoD this week focused on the Central Bank of Ireland's refresh of its 3-year strategic plan, as well as reinforcing what it expects financial services Boards to be focusing on in the near future.

This of course should sit in the context of what I covered last week on thematic enforcement work in 2013. Aside from his comments around board diversity, namely that the CBoI's 'fit and proper' activity to date is "...broadening the gene pool of corporate life" (eeeewwwww!), emphasis was given  to three particular areas:

Risk Appetite Statements

• CBoI expects "... [a] high quality risk appetite statement that is well understood and implemented throughout the firm in practice"
• "...clear articulation of the acceptable level of risk...at different confidence levels, is an important discipline and an essential compliment to a well-articulated business strategy"
• That, due to disappointments in the past, Risk Appetite statements are "...certainly an area of increasing interest on [the regulator's] part, and where we are debating the best approach for encouraging improvements"

System of Governance and Risk Culture

• Boards should "...provide broad, challenging scrutiny of your firm's culture regarding regulatory compliance and internal challenge"
• Ensure that there are "...appropriately resourced and well-qualified risk management and compliance functions"
• "Think more fundamentally and strategically about the culture in the institution that you oversee"

I would add that a lot of this sits nicely with the FSB's Risk Governance paper which was released last week.

Board composition

• Expect directors to take a "...hard nosed view on Board composition, with a view to improving performance"
• Endeavour to attain the "...right gender diversity...and international experience"

With Risk Appetite and Risk Culture both having featured on the IRM's hitlist recently, the practitioners over there will have some assistance to hand from an industry body, however there should be some other useful stuff available in the tag cloud at the bottom of this page on appetite, culture and diversity if you are struggling for inspiration.

Elderfield speech to Insurance Day summit in Bermuda - equivalence, model approval and "hub and spoke"

Very informative speech delivered this week by Mr Elderfield from the Central Bank of Ireland to the Insurance Day summit held in his previous stomping ground of Bermuda (certainly a more welcoming climate that last month's summit in not-so-sunny London!).

He mainly covers equivalence, internal model applications and, as one might expect from the Emerald Isle, the potential for Hub and Spoke operations and the potential capital benefits of this technique (which has a sniff of Group Support about it in all but name). I noted the following;

General

• Suggests Solvency II provides "...an incentive for investment in risk management, including the use of internal models" - I would substitute "incentive" for "compulsion"!
• Singles out "small firms" as those which will "certainly" struggle to assimilate and implement Solvency II in its current guise
• Notes that "...the current target is that member state governments will domestically implement [Solvency II] by 30th June 2013" - I have emphasised the "current target", as the very wording suggests that there is an implication it is not the "final target"!

Model applications

• "...it is important that approval process doesn't get bogged down in detail such as endless documentation reviews" - cue some raised handbags down at Canary Wharf I suspect!
• Highlights expert judgements around correlation and diversification (as he has done this time last year) as being much more significant around challenging the solvency requirements calculated by the models, in particular the "swing" these elements have on the final numbers. On that premise, he puts these "...at the forefront of the regulatory approval process", as well as expecting them to generate the most challenge in the boardroom.
• Elaborates on the extent of Board challenge by commenting that "...boards should be expected to challenge vigorously the amount of diversification benefit being claimed in internal models, even if they don't know the internal plumbing of copulas or correlation matrices". Very telling comment, and clearly one to heed, bearing in mind he is on EIOPA's management board.

Hub and Spoke

• Seeing "considerable interest" in using Ireland for the "hub" of the "hub and spoke" business model - one may have said this was for regulatory arbitrage purposes 5 years ago, but I'm guessing corporation tax, falling wages and underemployment may have kept it in play even after the recent beefing up of the CBoI
• Comments that "...it will be interesting to see whether [the hub and spoke] model will grow as Solvency II gets closer to implementation - implies that not only does he think the existing corporate structures are not settled yet, but that Ireland is actively open for business in this regard.

Equivalence

• Not sure if he was just being polite to his hosts, but he commented "...Bermuda is very well placed for [the equivalence] assessment process" - again worth heeding in the context of his position at EIOPA, as well as Bermuda coming off worst of the 3 countries which have been assessed in wave 1.
• Suggests there should be some sort of early adopter's premium for Bermuda which makes it worth being ahead of those countries who may come in in wave 2 (no mention of one of their competitors Guernsey in this context, who continue to bang the IAIS ICP drum while stating categorically that they will not seek equivalence).

Good intelligence all in all - PS must try and swing an invite to one of these things when they go tropical!

PRISM and Central Bank of Ireland - ORSA come early?

Towards the end of last week, Matthew Elderfield launched the Probability Risk and Impact SysteM (PRISM, summary here and detail here), which aims to usher in a new age of supervisory challenge to the Irish financial sector, well documented as having had an easy time of it before credit started to get crunchy.

One big challenge for the CBoI will be to get everything up and running before June 2012 (hopefully the recruitment drive wasas good for quality as it seemingly was for quantity!), so all the best to them for that. More pointedly, the acknowledgement that the ramping up of staff numbers will start to be felt in the industry levies asap, coupled with future income streams referenced in their planned aggresive enforcement and fining of non-compliant firms must have any of the stragglers still living in 2006 quaking in their boots.

Very interesting to see the take on Risk Appetite, Risk Tolerance, Risk Assessment Criteria etc applied by a regulator to its industry, rather than my normal vantage point of a risk consultant, either advising on or benchmarking the same facets of individual ERM frameworks within an insurance undertaking. I would have thought the way in which these things are described in Mr. Elderfield's speech should be good guidance for corporate governance code adherence over there (let's face it, it doesn't get better than from the horse's mouth!).

One thing that would make me very uncomfortable as an Insurance consultant is the extent of the crossover between ORSA, QRTs, SFCR and RSR and what is being proposed under PRISM. I would not be keen on, for example, defining 'Risk Profile' for my client in line with Solvency II definitions, only to be contradicted by the regulator's PRISM definition of 'Risk Profile', which is overall solvency needs by any other name.

If I get some spare time, I may run a cross-check between ORSA and PRISM obligations, and work out whether the CBoI is trying to tell the insurance industry how to do an ORSA via subliminal messages - for the life of me, I can't quite work out what this does for the industry that an ORSA run with "appropriate" frequency doesn't.

Guest Post on Solvency II Wire - Expansion on Matthew Elderfield Speech

I have just had a guest post published on Gideon Benari's Solvency II Wire website, expanding on my earlier post regarding Matthew Elderfield's speech a fortnight ago. Click through to enjoy it, I won't replicate it here, least of all because it looks better on Solvency II Wire!

While you are there, I strongly recommend signing up for email and/or RSS feed from Gideon's site, which covers a much broader range of topics than I ever could.

Fit and Proper - Elderfield asking too much?

A rather bizarre story reporting that AIB, a full 3 months in advance of a deadline for assessing the fitness and probity of certain staff under new legislation, have said they may not be able to do it.

The literal application of the legislation appears to be the issue, with AIB citing a number of around 10,000 staff covered by the definition in the consultation paper (p10 covers the piece about having control over the property of a customer, which appears to be the sticking point).

As Elderfield himself noted in his recent speech, this is supposed to be similar to the FSA approach (which I suspect will drive the as yet undefined Solvency II approach), and I don't believe they ask for administrators to be assessed. One senses that the aggressive regulatory approach currently being taken is leading to a closed door policy between senior staff in the regulator and industry - this kind of private correspondence leaking as a lobbying tactic is very unseemly.

Matthew Elderfield speech to European Insurance Forum

The European Insurance Forum has been the poor relation in terms of big events in Dublin this last week (Queen's visit, Obama's visit, Cup Final etc), but the big presentations given are available off this link

I haven't been through all of those yet, but I rushed to go through Matthew Elderfield's keynote speech on the regulatory landscape. Some media comment here and here might help sift through the 20 pages of detail, but my take was as follows;

•  Take some comfort from his comment "rule book for banks should not be Xeroxed wholesale onto insurance"
• Attributed Irish problems to lack of regulatory resource (and an adequate assessment framework) and lack of effective standards for Fit & Proper assessment ("gaping hole")
• Having done the work on corporate governance standards at macro level, the Central bank will be looking at "internal governance standards" later this year - this is intriguing to say the least!
• Only 11 "major institutions" in Ireland according to his definition (significant policyholder detriment and reputational damage to Ireland)
• FAQ's will be publised on board participation requirements - truly staggering if this is correct, and flies in the face of the views of the IOD on skills adequacy just blogged on.
• "Corporate Governance standards were improved due to the input of industry comments" - I analysed these at the time, and they barely changed after feedback ("Major institutions" definition notwithstanding)!
• Fitness and probity standards under consultation compared to Approved Persons regime in UK
• Big section on Variable Annuity providers who have set up en masse in Dublin - they have responded by setting up a bespoke VA team.
• They will require all VA writers to produce an Internal Model for Sol II - no mention on whether, if a model fails the application test, it will be forced to move jurisdictions!
• "Invested in building up staff levels" for Solvency II - yet can still only produce their Solvency Matters document quarterly, with virtually no "new news" in it.
• General sympathy with deadline pressures at EIOPA/Commission level, noting that the intention is "to progress as much of the non-Omnibus II impacted work as possible"
• "Need to give consideration to the phasing of particular obligations on supervisors and insurance firms" - asking for transitionals?
• Emphasised the usual areas requiring change in the QIS calibrations (nothing new), EPIFP and Contract boundaries etc.
• Central Bank favours a "middle course" for recognition of EPIFP in tier 1 - CEA estimated the gap would be €100bn of capitalisation if it was excluded, against €3bn if fully included across the whol industry.
• Wants to "disabuse" the industry of the fear that a beneficial step change in capital requirements using an internal model will necessarily lead to model rejection - peer comparison will be used for reasonableness though.
• VERY IMPORTANT - highlights that diversification benefits derived from correlation matrices or copulas that include "a significant degree of subjective judgement" are not currently given enough regulatory attention, due to excessive focus on risk buckets - "...the marginal impact of these changes are dwarfed by the impact of judgement calls on correlation or dependency".
• VERY IMPORTANT - planning to introduce a special levy for internal models - unlucky Ireland!
• Refers to the trend of hub-and-spoke models rather than subsidiaries due to loss of Group Support section of Solvency II. He wants to "...make sure that the hub [in Ireland] is substantial and has sufficient critical mass to exercise effective control over its branch operations". Basically negating any regulatory arbitrage plays.
• As a hub supervisor, he will be "prepared to exercise effective direct oversight over branch operations",
• Notes that, in the absence of the IAIS ComFrame framework that Solvency II as become de facto binding international standard on solvency

Change of model scrutiny focus to correlation is a big call, and the special levy is sure to go down badly in a country which has just hit pension providers with a separate one-off levy.