Solvency II - things what happened in the last couple of months...

She might not be singing yet, but just like my nana at Pilates, the Solvency II fat lady is taking some deep breaths. As I have spent the last couple of months at home in au-pair mode, gladly leaving the rest of the world to waffle about ERM and Solvency II, I thought I would throw together a catch-up post, given that applications for some of the Solvency II goodies have been open since 1st April.

Starting at the top, the UK Government managed to stay sellotaped together long enough to get the fundamental Solvency II legislative work pushed through Parliament before they disbanded for the General Election. The documentation is available in full here, with synopsis here. Interestingly, this formally obliges the PRA to review capital add-ons "at least" once a year, as well as to provide specific reporting to EIOPA on the topic. There is also a little more meat around the sticky issue of firms who breach their MCR, then look unlikely to rectify the matter.

The Government also released the findings of their Regulatory Policy Committee (RPC) in assessing whether Solvency II was going to be a blessing or a curse for Britain. This is actually a very handy drop-in document for your NEDs/peripheral programme figures, and is worth pushing on to them.

They do make the rather controversial statement that on top of the estimated £2.6bn cost to the industry of implementation (!!!!!), the ongoing costs of c.£200m a year will be due to reporting obligations (fair enough) as well as the need for a remuneration policy (hmmm?). Rather disparagingly, the Treasury merely estimate "un-quantified administrative benefits" off the back of improvements in risk management and governance arrangements.

The PRA have recently released the Policy Statement covering their final rules for Solvency II implementation, which on paper should contain no surprises (other associated materials available here). Generalist media chatter (here and here for example) was pretty underwhelming, and while Mark Carney emphasises in the statement that Insurers must be "robustly supervised", Andrew Bailey stated merely that while the "...new regime will not be perfect...it is a welcome step in the right direction"

On a lighter note, the European institutions got a bit beefy over the new year when the newly installed Commissioner Hill had his ears chewed by ECON's new Chair regarding a range of issues or unanswered questions regarding the Delegated Acts. Having given himself a couple of weeks to digest, he pinged out a reply thanking ECON for pointing out three typos, and otherwise defending his corner. Much of the background noise in this correspondence regarding infrastructure investment and EIOPA funding has had a life of its own for some time now - indeed, EIOPA's dummy was definitively spat on the matter last week when they "reprioritised" their 2015 work plan to account for budget cuts.

B-ABI - got back?

NEDs have recently been the beneficiaries of a webcast featuring the juicy double of Huw Evans and Paul Fisher discussing the implications of Solvency II's progression for NEDs. For anyone struggling to get their NEDs to read overinflated board packs these days, a diversion to this footge would be a smart idea (video 1 is more chatter, so start at video 2).

A parallel release for NEDs came from the PRA in the form of a slide pack and a monster 1hr 30m recording of the presentation which it accompanied. Clearly the PRA have seen enough gaps in the efforts of NEDs to date to go to these en-masse tutorial lengths, but the material on validation and ORSA in particular should be swallowed whole.

Solvency II Delegated Acts - Commission publish, world shrugs

Delegated Acts - handle with care

On Friday, the European Commission  released a "provisional" version of Solvency II's Delegated Acts via their own website.

Given how long they have taken to arrive, they rather surprisingly aren't chiselled into pyramid slabs or written on parchment - less surprisingly, they feature very little in the way of changes since the July 2014 version, so for those who want to know why it has taken 3 years for these to officially emerge, the January 2014 version is a better contrast (I summarise some of the changes between 2011's starter document and the January version here).

There has been enough comment since Friday (here, here, here and here for a start) to highlight what has changed since the summer, and more importantly, what has driven those changes - namely, encouraging EU insurers to plough money into long-term infrastructure assets by making them cheaper from a capital perspective, thus solving the European Union's economic woes in one fell swoop!

Bear in mind the first scrounging letter from the Commission came to EIOPA over two years ago, reminding them of what a "...potentially powerful financing channel" European insurers could be, provided any necessary "...adjustment or reduction" was made to Solvency II's capital requirements.

Little wonder then that it has taken a while for them to ensure that Solvency II remains prudential, while simultaneously unlocking long-term capital pools, though it sounds like the empirical basis of EIOPA's earlier calibration attempts has been overriden to get there.

Is it likely to get through the baying mob in ECON? The insurance industry's Green Party sparring partner had already flagged his distaste at the capital discounts now being offered, as well as the due process applied to recalibrating them.

It remains to be seen whether it is controversial enough to delay the inevitable in early January, but given the Acts seem to have been received with customary ambivalence by most affected parties, this is probably 'job done'.

Solvency II Delegated Acts - whenever, wherever...

No sign of the Solvency II Delegated Acts sign-off as yet. The mighty ECON committee of the European Parliament have just about got their feet under the table after May's elections (and June, July and August's European summer holidays!), but despite meeting on the 3rd and 4th Sept, they don't appear to have discussed or even listed the matter as work in progress.

Wouldn't have felt such a big deal, given Gideon's summary on the topic back in early August, but the Mr Claffey and Co. at Milliman appear to have picked up on a potential sore point for the unit-linked boys, which might jack-up the Operational Risk SCR for anyone in standard formula world (which would cover a good number of pure unit-linked businesses I expect).

I've had a look around for the July version of the Delegated Acts, but they have yet to be leaked* as publicly as the January version - I would recommend anyone in the unit linked world gives this a once over, particularly if you still pay fat commission cheques!





* How about I shut my mouth - not only has the wonderful Petter Svensson (Sweden's foremost independent consultant) made it available on his own site, the Romanian Regulator has done similarly. Fill your boots...

Omnibus II preparations - quick note on the evasive ECON amendments

Just a quick weekend note before the Omnibus II-related fun starts for all us Solvency-II enthusiasts next week.

It didn't feel like much was doing this week on the run up, but then Practical Law published a note last night to say ECON had been tampering with the Omnibus II text. Bearing in mind there is at least one notable dissenter on the existing Omnibus II compromise within ECON, it would be nice to see exactly what ECON have tabled.


EU Transparency - just add oil

I have been onto the ECON site, and ferreted through the agendas and publications from their last few meetings, but have found nothing (for "amendments", I figured this was the most likely source, but I have come up with nothing).  I find the more you look for paperwork in EU institution websites, the less you find - as transparent as a tar-soaked binbag, and more's the pity.

One thing is for sure - the deadline for tabling amendments was lunchtime on Wednesday (item 1), so whatever was sent must have got there by then. We can also see that a "rule 142" special has been added to the Plenary agenda, presumably to help shoe-horn a vote through if the debate gets a little fractious.

That said, in IMD2 we have recently seen a piece of financial services legislation get bounced out of Plenary and back to trilogue regardless of the forthcoming Parliamentary elections. Will "rule 142" come to the rescue, or will we be kissing 2016 goodbye at lunchtime on Tuesday?

Omnibus II and Delegated Acts - state of play summary (before it gets interesting!)

Unless you've been hiding in a cave since last summer, you shouldn't find anything new in this post, but I wanted to accumulate all relevant materials into one place for the run up to Omnibus II D-Day for my own convenience, and you're welcome to share.

At the moment we have;

European Parliament

• Omnibus II Plenary vote is still  scheduled for Tuesday March 11th. The Plenary page is here, but the forward agenda is not available, despite draft agendas apparently being due a month prior to Plenary meetings (suspicious?). There doesn't appear to have been any recent parliamentary agitation, from the steaming-mad Green contingent in particular, to suggests Omnibus II will get derailed at this point.

European Commission

• I'll cover the fineries of this on a separate post, but worth noting that the Commission's "draft implementing measures" document, which have been circulating for over 2 years, is now referred to as "Delegated Acts", after being Lisbonised.
• A revised draft of these rebadged Delegated Acts, on the assumption that Omnibus II gets through Plenary, will be delivered like an impatient baby in the deuxieme trimestre of this year (p21). 
• It apparently not be made available to the proles for public consumption beforehand (reported here and here). Still plenty of time for the faceless exponents of dark arts and back-room shenanighans to influence its content, so the lack of formal consultation is not necessarily a calendar breaker, though it is exceptionally poor form. 
• The Commission's advisers now come in the form of EGIBF (for Delegated Acts) and EIOPC (for Implementing Acts). EIOPC are evidently a garage without a car at the moment, having not published a scrap of material in 15 months while Omnibus II dragged its heels. 

EIOPA

• EIOPA's work on implementing technical standards is due to be released from April, in a phased manner.  I don't think that the activity is Omnibus II-dependent as such, even if EIOPA's influence is a little less formal without it!

Obviously as a practitioner in the Risk field who doesn't want to wallow in the details of European Union lexicon, the forthcoming spurt of activity is considerably murkier than it would have been pre-Lisbon. Virtually every relevant term or participating body in the Solvency II hemisphere has had a name or remit change in the interim, and I'm not seeing anyone offer a mapping between "Pre" and "Post"-Lisbon terms.

I'll have a stab on a separate post, for my own sanity if nothing else.

Solvency II, Omnibus II and Trilogue - two steps forward, two steps back?

Headline results from an Economist Intelligence Unit survey have been published this week, apparently suggesting that most global insurers continue to see Solvency II as their biggest regulatory challenge. Despite its prominence in the agendas of insurers' committees, boards and control functions, the legislation appeared to have taken a back seat in the decision-making fora of the European Union since the publication of EIOPA's LTGA in June.

So while the EU Parliamentarians go off for their hard earned 5 weeks in the sun (and by association Omnibus II/Solvency II will temporarily sit untouched like a pair of pink booties in Buckingham Palace), we can try and work out what the crack is with the dossier!

Trilogue
So with the Trilogue process itself necessarily one of closed doors, secret handshakes and unpublished shady deals, at least we formally know that they reconvened before the summer holidays thanks to Sharon Bowles' diary handler! Other than InsuranceERM's piece on a "muted start" to the negotiations (subscription only), the well is pretty dry on comment, suggesting that they got off to an inauspicious (re)start.

Parliament
As far as the latest ITER listings go (p1), ECON will not be considering the dossier again until 18th November 2013. From what I can read of the Parliamentary calendar, that is too close to supply the November Plenary with anything to vote on, and the December one is scheduled early in the month. Fair to say that, as indicated by Burkhard Balz last month, the Parliament won't vote on Omnibus II before 2014?

Council

Bed made - but covers stolen...

So the Lithuanian presidency is in town, and apparently sees the Omnibus II dossier as having "high importance" (p3) within their recently published work programme. ECOFIN have a state of play meeting provisionally scheduled for 15th October 2013.

That said, when pressed for comment when attending ECON before the summer holidays, they seems to have learned from the Paula Abdul school of making progress: for the two steps forward indicated by the Lithuanian Finance Minister's comment that the Presidency is committed to resolving, amongst other dossiers, Omnibus II (p12), he immediately takes two steps back by noting one of the key tactics will be "...focusing on uncontroversial technical issues to facilitate progress" (p13) - might be OK for some of the multitude of delayed dossiers, but not this one!

EIOPA
EIOPA naturally consider their work largely done for Omnibus II, and consider the report a "reliable basis" for making decisions on LTGs, and ultimately Omnibus II itself. Sr. Bernadino did however admit at the ABI conference a week back that, for 2016 to remain a viable "Go Live" date, political agreement on Omnibus II would be needed by the end of this year. Judging by Parliament's position above, I guess 2016 is out then!

European Commission
While Commissioner Barnier had lavished praise on EIOPA's, errr, "very good [LTGA] report", the Commission has lost its Solvency II specialist to retirement during this year, which might lead some observers to believe the Commission will be less effective as a negotiator while the new boy learns the ropes. However, Gideon managed to get some words from Karel van Hulle's replacement a couple of weeks back, and his modus operandi doesn't sound like one which will lead to a swift decision at the expense of one or two angry outliers in any case.

Specifically his comment that "We need to find a solution that works for almost all Member States. That is our ambition. So we don’t like to get the project through, just about ", suggests that anyone at the table with a gripe will get some airtime. With the LTGA outcome causing more gripe than at a constipated nursery, I suspect that the delays caused by the current 5 week vacance soleil will be a mere drop in the ocean...

Omnibus II - Plenary vote delayed by 3 months

The worst kept secret has finally been revealed, namely that the EU Parliament's Plenary session to clear Omnibus II has been postponed by 3 months to July (good spot Gideon) - obviously makes that session more of a coronation if they are going to get it cleared before the summer holidays, so lets hope the guys in ECON get their job done later this month and the 'Trialogers' don't waste too much time between then and July.

Solvency II - Another year (or two) later?

As flagged by Reuters earlier, the German FT has cited an "industry insider" as having whispered that a move to 2015, or even 2016, is a possibility.

While the general chatter in the FT article covers some supportibng argument on the quant front, the legislative timetable argument is a lot more compelling. Bearing in mind that the ECON vote has moved, but the plenary vote currently remains unchanged, should any delays or differences of opinion hold up Omnibus II clearance above and beyond the summer recess, the knock on effects would perhaps support this (i.e. bifurcation or not, Jan 2014 would not be achievable).

As ever, I guess the parliamentary vote date is the one to look out for!

Late post script - Reuters ponied up with another article today which touches on the story but brings in Peter Skinner's explanation of the delay

Omnibus II delay - ECON moves, Plenary stays still?

No doubt you all enjoyed Gideon's reportage from Friday (leapt upon by the other outlets shortly afterwards) that the sign-off on Omnibus II from the specialist EU parliamentary committee ECON, scheduled for this month before moving on to a full plenary (i.e. all of the EU Parliament) vote in April, had been yet again postponed. For you Brits, the FSA have commented on this development as well.

Easy to speculate on the causes of this (indeed the recent snub by David Cameron on the bail-out front is cited here as perhaps having weakened the UK's lobbying power at a time where they perhaps have the most to lose), but fair to assume it is still on the numbers front as opposed to Pillar II or III.

Worth flagging here that, while the ECON vote has now been changed to end of March on the Europarl website, the full plenary vote is still as it stood previously (mid-April). This could be the reason why most public comment since Gideon broke the story has been reluctant to say that this delay might shift the go-live date.

Good news then I guess...