Showing posts with label overall solvency needs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label overall solvency needs. Show all posts

Monday, 30 September 2013

ORSA/Forward Looking Assessment of Risk - EIOPA's FINAL preparatory guidance for national supervisors

EIOPA reuse the preamble from the System of Governance guidance in their ORSA/FLAOR guidance, save for confirming that an assessment of overall solvency needs will be expected in 2014 and 2015 (more on that later). I will use ORSA rather than EIOPA's shiny new acronym for my own convenience throughout this post!

It ultimately reads in parts as a circuitous and convoluted piece due to the way that EIOPA have had to splice the ORSA requirements into three component parts, as per Article 45.1 of the Directive, to accommodate the postponement of some elements until 2015. An horrific example of this is point 3.112, which to paraphrase Chris Morris, reads like the ramblings of a drugged horse.

That said, they have clearly had to contend with a mountain of feedback since the initial consultation paper was released, and have done a better job of explaining why most comments were, in EIOPA's view at least, misguided.

Again from the practitioner's perspective I would highlight in general that;
  1. There is almost no discernible movement in EIOPA's position, even after lobbying;
  2. That explanations for the inclusion of contentious content are generally forthcoming, though for this subject are more forthright and pragmatic (perhaps naturally due to the lack of L1 and L2 substance);
  3. That 2014 ORSA is a genuine piece of work which will require the attention of the most senior staff in insurance firms - it would be a brave company that play-acts at any elements of the documentation, processes and outputs of the assessment.
Supporting arguments for EIOPA's final views are listed below, along with any relevant commentary from my practitioner's angle; 

Clarification re Omnibus II
3.49 - If go-live in 2016 does not happen due to further Omnibus II delays, "...undertakings will still be expected to perform the [overall solvency needs] assessment from 2014 onwards"

Clarification re continuous compliance with SCR and Technical Provisions calculations requirements, and the deviation from SF SCR assumptions assessment
3.50 - Confirm that these elements are postponed until 2015, and that technical specifications will be forthcoming from EIOPA by year-end to aid in the conduct of some of this activity.

Parallel running Sol I/Sol II concerns
3.53 - basically, not EIOPA's problem!

Compulsion for model applicants to also use SF in the assessment
3.54 - clarify that this in NOT about benchmarking models, rather "taking into account contingencies" should a firm's model not get through IMAP. A thoroughly negative and unsympathetic approach from EIOPA on this one I'm afraid

Timing
3.58 - "EIOPA considers it necessary that all undertakings perform the assessment of overall solvency needs at least two times during the preparatory phase, once in 2014 and once in 2015...[and] at any time during 2014"
3.60 - Stress that "...it is for the undertaking to decide on the appropriate reference date for its FLAOR", though couched in an expectation that financial year-end is most likely.

Guideline 5 - Delegation of activity by the AMSB
3.73 - "not acceptable" to delegate full responsibility for ORSA to sub-committees of the AMSB

Guideline 7 - ORSA Policy
3.62 - "...it is necessary to develop a full policy during the preparatory phase"
3.63 - "...[The ORSA Policy] may be part of the policy on Risk Management", though must be clearly identifiable

Guideline 8 - Record of the ORSA
3.64 - Rather bizarrely suggest that the ORSA Record is "...no less, but maybe even more important during preparation that after the start of Solvency II", but either way the message is clear - maintain the records carefully

Guideline 9 - Sharing information internally
3.77 - "It is for the AMSB to decide which parts of the information will be distributed to whom" - clearly some panic amongst respondents that they may have to start telling the 'proles' about their future employemnt prospects!

Guideline 10 - Supervisory Report
3.66 - EIOPA "...does however not expect that the first report will necessarily already be perfect"
3.69 - AMSB sign-off, accepting the results of the ORSA is the trigger for the 2 week window in which to submit the Supervisory Report
3.70 and 3.71 - Some rather confused paragraphs which seem to indicate that, if there is enough resistance to the results internally, that extra time may be afforded to the firm

Guideline 11 - Valuation bases
3.79 - EIOPA scrutiny postponed until 2015, but justifications on bases used expected

Guideline 12 - Overall Solvency Needs assessment
3.83 - EIOPA expect "...it will take several years" before this assessment is good enough, hence they expect the preparatory phase to include practice!

Guideline 14/15 - Continuous compliance with SCR requirements and Technical Provisions calculation rules
3.85 - Postponed until 2015, and again justify activity prior to Solvency II going live by using a practice makes perfect mantra, noting that attempting to do this will "...intensify the learning experience"! I wonder if anyone ever used that phrase in their budgeting requests...

Guideline 16 - Deviation of one's Risk Profile from SF SCR assumptions 
3.89 - Postponed until 2015, and also note that quantifying one's deviation from the SF assumptions will not be necessary "...if there is no indication that the deviation is significant". I guess modellers will have to wind their necks in around Credit Risk assumptions in particular on this matter, bearing in mind the diversity of methods currently on display.

Ultimately, little opportunity for shortcuts then, but perhaps enough time to review what's already in place before resource planning your 2014 activities.

Friday, 29 March 2013

EIOPA Preparatory Guidance - ORSA (or 'forward looking assessment of risks')

Forward-looking assessment of the undertakings own risks (based on ORSA principles) (plus explanatory text)

The ORSA preparatory guidelines* are not a massive burden for anyone busy rolling eggs down hills at the moment, coming in at 34 pages containing 25 guidelines, as well as 29 pages of explanatory text. In this instance, it is probably disappointing to any underprepared supervisors and insurers in that they may have preferred more!

More pointedly, the materials add little to what was already in existence from EIOPA in July 2012, and certainly will required little in the way of adaption in the UK's instance, who are already in a similar headspace and have been advising accordingly.

Of course the world and her husband have piped up with their opinion on what ORSA should cover and how it should be administered and documented (this post has a decent sweep at capturing most of them), so opinion on this matter is something we are not short on.

For me the headline points are:
  • ORSAs (well, 'overall solvency needs assessments', but let's be serious!) expected from 2014
  • Internal Models should be used by anyone in pre-application
  • Likely that most standard formula firms will have to qualitatively assess deviations between SF and their own Risk Profile at this time
  • Expectation of an internal ORSA report and a ORSA supervisory report
  • Records of the assessment expected to be documented and kept which must be "appropriate" - no prescription of what that means
  • ORSAs to be performed at least annually
The following points are either new, or worthy of reiteration for anyone whose preparations on this front are less than certain - for ease of reference I have used 'ORSA' where EIOPA use 'forward looking assessment of risk', and as with the other preparatory guidance papers I have looked at, I will assume there will be blanket application as written, with no dissent from industry or NCAs:

Guideline 3
  • Overall Solvency Needs assessments will be expected from 2014 (i.e compliance with Article 45.1)
  • Minimum of 80% of the market must also assess whether they would comply with the Articles 45 (b) and (c) from 2014 - regardless of any Pillar 1 uncertainty.
  • Internal Models expected to be used in ORSAs if a company is in model approval pre-application
  • IF the standard formula is 'provided' by 2014, expectation that SF firms will assess deviation between the SF assumptions and their own Risk Profile - this excludes anyone outside of the magic 80% catchment figure mentioned above.
Guideline 6 - Documentation generated by ORSAs must include:
  • An ORSA Policy
  • An ORSA Record
  • An Internal ORSA Report
  • AN ORSA Supervisory Report
Guideline 7 - The ORSA Policy must include
  • Description of component ORSA processes and procedures
  • Consideration of the linkages between Risk Profile, Risk Tolerances and Overall Solvency Needs (OSN)
As well as information on
  • frequency on stress tests, scenario analyses and reverse stress tests; 
  • data quality standards; and 
  • the frequency of the assessment, justified in relation to Risk Profile, volatility of OSN relative to capital position, timing (from calendar perspective I guess) and circumstances for ad-hoc assessments
Guideline 8 - ORSA Record
  • Firms expected to "appropriately evidence" the assessment - no prescription as to what that means (logs, working papers, meeting minutes, e-mails)
Guideline 9 - Internal ORSA Report
  • AMSB must communicate results to "all relevant staff" post-approval, which includes the ORSA results and conclusions
Guideline 10 - ORSA Supervisory Report
  • 2 weeks after concluding ORSA, ORSA supervisory report must be submitted, which must include;
  • Quantitative and qualitative results, and conclusions drawn
  • Methods and main assumptions
  • Comparison between Own Funds, SCR and OSN
Guideline 11
  • Must quantitatively estimate the impact of different valuation bases (if used) when assessing OSN
Guideline 12
  • OSN must be quantified, supplemented by a qualitative description of all material risks
  • Expectation that these items are all stress/scenario tested
Guideline 17ORSA output to be used at least for;
  • Capital Management
  • Business Planning
  • Product Development
Guideline 18
  • ORSA to be performed at least annually

* So let's end with something fundamental, EIOPA - it is NOT useful to replace 'ORSA', as an acronym or indeed in full, with the expression "Forward-looking assessment of risk (based on ORSA principles)" 5 years down the road - I'm sure there is a rationale, just as sure as I am not going to like it (even the GCAE agree with me, going with 'ORSA-like')!